8. Forecast of Labour Supply and Demand for Cultural Occupations

This chapter provides insights into not only how the sector has recently performed but also where the sector might be headed. The main intent of labour market projections is to map out the likely future path of employment and occupations given the current state of information. Projections can provide valuable insights about how economic and demographic forces are shaping the labour market and the ensuing impact on certain industries and occupations. Indeed, factors such as demography, technological change, economic growth, globalization, and consumer behaviour can all heavily influence the outcome for labour market. The number and types of jobs in tomorrow’s economy will largely depend on these factors.

Labour market projections can help participants in the labour market by providing valuable insight as to where the jobs are potentially going to be. Individuals can use this information to make informed career choices, educational institutions can align their curricula with the demand, and governments can benefit with respect to their own hiring needs as well as by setting appropriate policies and spending priorities. Meanwhile, businesses can look for opportunities that will help maximize their returns by investing in areas where the skills they require are plentiful. Labour market projections can be instrumental in smoothing out the impact of cyclical and structural changes and mitigating the social and economic costs of higher unemployment.

The value of efficient labour markets to an economy cannot be understated. A well-functioning labour market can generate prosperity for an economy, leading to high levels of output and income. On the other hand, inefficiencies can be costly to an economy and the welfare of its participants, leading to lost output, higher unemployment, and lost income.

8.1 Recent Performance of the Cultural Sector

The forecasts of labour supply and demand for the cultural sector need to consider, and build upon, the recent performance of the sector as reported by Statistics Canada’s Culture Satellite Account. Accounting for inflation, it is estimated that real revenues or the sector increased from $97.7 billion in 2012 to $105.7 billion in 2017 (2012 dollars). This 8.2 per cent growth in real revenues over this period resulted in boosting the real GDP of the sector by nearly 8 per cent (7.9 per cent). While the growth in GDP was slightly lower than the growth of the economy overall (10.3 per cent), the performance among the various domains (and subdomains) of the sector was varied. Overall, the strongest growth at the domain level was within the heritage and libraries, live performance, visual and applied arts, and sound recording domains.

While the growth in real GDP of the cultural sector lagged slightly behind that of the overall economy between 2012 and 2017, growth in employment (7.7 per cent) exceeded the growth in the overall economy (5.6 per cent) during that period. Overall, the strongest growth in employment at the domain level was within the heritage and libraries, live performance, sound recording, and audio-visual and interactive media domains.

In large part, some of the benefits associated with strong employment growth in the sector were the result of relatively weak productivity growth. Using a simple formula of output (revenues) per job, it is perhaps not that surprisingly to find productivity growth in the predominantly services sector–based cultural sector lags significantly behind that of the overall economy. In fact, between 2012 and 2017 the average annual growth in productivity (0.1 per cent) was significantly behind the average annual 1.5 per cent growth in the overall economy. (See Table 8.1.1.)

Table 8.1.1: Recent Productivity Performance of Cultural Sector 
(productivity = revenues in 2012 $ 000s per job)

Domains

Subdomains

Productivity, 2012

 

Productivity, 2017

 

Average annual productivity growth

Cultural sector, all products and services

 

147

148

0.1%

Culture products and services only

 

142

141

-0.2%

Heritage and libraries

Total

80

76

-1.1%

 

Archives

133

110

-3.8%

 

Libraries

180

143

-4.5%

 

Cultural heritage

79

75

-0.9%

 

Natural heritage

72

69

-0.9%

Live performance

Total

72

71

-0.3%

 

Performing arts

72

71

-0.3%

 

Festivals and celebrations

75

73

-0.6%

Visual and applied arts

Total

111

120

1.5%

 

Original visual art

61

66

1.6%

 

Art reproductions

79

82

1.0%

 

Photography

117

122

0.9%

 

Crafts

186

155

-3.6%

 

Advertising

111

117

1.0%

 

Architecture

154

146

-1.0%

 

Design

96

117

4.0%

Written and published works

Total

151

146

-0.7%

 

Books

204

165

-4.1%

 

Periodicals

199

171

-3.0%

 

Newspapers

162

134

-3.7%

 

Other published works

192

173

-2.0%

 

Collected Information

199

171

-3.0%

 

Multi-subdomain

127

142

2.2%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

216

217

0.0%

 

Film and video

160

156

-0.6%

 

Broadcasting

320

361

2.4%

 

Interactive media

152

170

2.3%

Sound recording

Total

151

143

-1.1%

 

Sound recording

100

102

0.4%

 

Music publishing

168

155

-1.6%

Education and training

 

90

87

-0.8%

Governance, funding, and professional support

 

151

155

0.6%

Multidomain*

 

241

200

-3.7%

Other products and services

 

171

178

0.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

8.2 Projected Future Performance of the Cultural Sector

Our projection estimates that the potential revenues of cultural industries in Canada could rise from $105.7 billion in 2017 to over $123.1 billion by 2026 (using inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars). (See Table 8.2.1.)

Table 8.2.1: Projected Potential Revenues of the Cultural Sector 
(revenues, 2012 $ millions)

Domains

Subdomains

2017

2026

2017–2026 growth

Cultural sector, all products and services

 

105,721

123,145

16.5%

Culture products and services only

 

81,752

95,640

17.0%

Heritage and libraries

Total

1,188

1,369

15.2%

 

Archives

17

20

23.2%

 

Libraries

75

101

34.9%

 

Cultural heritage

741

808

9.0%

 

Natural heritage

355

440

23.8%

Live performance

Total

4,244

5,015

18.2%

 

Performing arts

3,964

4,713

18.9%

 

Festivals and celebrations

280

302

8.0%

Visual and applied arts

Total

13,966

17,261

23.6%

 

Original visual art

385

493

28.2%

 

Art reproductions

79

94

18.0%

 

Photography

1,200

1,226

2.1%

 

Crafts

698

708

1.3%

 

Advertising

3,301

4,256

28.9%

 

Architecture

2,106

1,840

-12.6%

 

Design

6,197

8,645

39.5%

Written and published works

Total

14,895

16,040

7.7%

 

Books

1,388

1,220

-12.1%

 

Periodicals

1,802

1,632

-9.4%

 

Newspapers

2,839

1,850

-34.8%

 

Other published works

190

209

9.9%

 

Collected Information

368

344

-6.6%

 

Multi-subdomain

8,308

10,784

29.8%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

27,716

32,608

17.7%

 

Film and video

10,311

12,411

20.4%

 

Broadcasting

13,065

14,529

11.2%

 

Interactive media

4,340

5,669

30.6%

Sound recording

Total

1,184

1,425

20.4%

 

Sound recording

193

211

9.6%

 

Music publishing

991

1,214

22.5%

Education and training

 

4,750

5,338

12.4%

Governance, funding, and professional support

 

13,804

15,198

10.1%

Multidomain*

 

1,189

1,385

16.5%

Other products and services

 

23,969

27,505

14.8%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

This 16.5 per cent projected growth in revenues over this period is expected to boost the real GDP contribution of the sector by over 15 per cent (15.4 per cent) by 2026. (See Table 8.2.2.) This growth is projected to nearly match that of the economy overall (16.1 per cent). Overall, the strongest growth at the domain level is projected in the visual and applied arts, audio-visual and interactive media, and sound recording domains.

Table 8.2.2: Projected Potential GDP of the Cultural Sector 
(GDP, 2012 $ millions)

Domains

Subdomains

2017

2026

2017–2026 growth

Cultural sector, all products and services

 

52,727

60,856

15.4%

Culture products and services only

 

40,080

46,474

16.0%

Heritage and libraries

Total

524

599

14.4%

 

Archives

8

13

75.0%

 

Libraries

34

67

99.2%

 

Cultural heritage

322

339

5.4%

 

Natural heritage

161

179

11.6%

Live performance

Total

1,985

2,150

8.3%

 

Performing arts

1,854

2,011

8.5%

 

Festivals and celebrations

131

139

6.2%

Visual and applied arts

Total

7,256

9,174

26.4%

 

Original visual art

181

193

6.6%

 

Art reproductions

36

36

2.5%

 

Photography

569

560

-1.5%

 

Crafts

240

281

17.2%

 

Advertising

1,750

2,172

24.1%

 

Architecture

1,347

1,359

0.8%

 

Design

3,132

4,572

46.0%

Written and published works

Total

7,437

7,504

0.9%

 

Books

695

628

-9.6%

 

Periodicals

895

745

-16.7%

 

Newspapers

1,827

1,434

-21.5%

 

Other published works

95

112

17.6%

 

Collected Information

183

173

-5.8%

 

Multi-subdomain

3,742

4,413

17.9%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

11,531

13,521

17.3%

 

Film and video

3,039

3,134

3.1%

 

Broadcasting

6,010

6,791

13.0%

 

Interactive media

2,482

3,595

44.8%

Sound recording

Total

439

508

15.7%

 

Sound recording

77

80

3.8%

 

Music publishing

362

428

18.3%

Education and training

 

3,360

3,843

14.4%

Governance, funding, and professional support

 

7,338

8,335

13.6%

Multidomain*

 

650

840

29.2%

Other products and services

 

12,647

14,382

13.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

To estimate the growth in employment for the sector going forward, estimates of labour productivity need to be established. These projections not only consider the recent performance of each domain and subdomain but also incorporate the potential impact that tighter labour markets will have on productivity going forward. Meanwhile, continued advancements in technology and evolving changes in consumption patterns and processes will affect the demand for labour by exerting additional pressure on labour productivity. As a result of the collective influences, between 2017 and 2026, the average annual growth in productivity in the sector is projected to advance 0.9 per cent. (See Table 8.2.3.) While this is still projected to lag the overall economy (1.1 per cent), the gap is projected to narrow significantly.

Table 8.2.3: Projected Potential Productivity Performance of the Cultural Sector 
(productivity = revenues in 2012 $ 000s per job)

Domains

Subdomains

Productivity,

2017

 

Productivity,

2026

Average annual productivity growth

Cultural sector, all products and services

 

148

160

0.9%

Culture products and services only

 

141

153

0.9%

Heritage and libraries

Total

76

74

-0.2%

 

Archives

110

114

0.4%

 

Libraries

143

150

0.5%

 

Cultural heritage

75

72

-0.5%

 

Natural heritage

69

70

0.2%

Live performance

Total

71

73

0.4%

 

Performing arts

71

73

0.4%

 

Festivals and celebrations

73

72

-0.3%

Visual and applied arts

Total

120

139

1.7%

 

Original visual art

66

77

1.7%

 

Art reproductions

82

93

1.3%

 

Photography

122

136

1.2%

 

Crafts

155

154

-0.1%

 

Advertising

117

138

1.9%

 

Architecture

146

126

-1.7%

 

Design

117

151

2.9%

Written and published works

Total

146

162

1.2%

 

Books

165

152

-0.9%

 

Periodicals

171

169

-0.1%

 

Newspapers

134

110

-2.2%

 

Other published works

173

184

0.7%

 

Collected Information

171

162

-0.6%

 

Multi-subdomain

142

177

2.5%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

217

222

0.3%

 

Film and video

156

148

-0.6%

 

Broadcasting

361

457

2.7%

 

Interactive media

170

185

0.9%

Sound recording

Total

143

157

1.1%

 

Sound recording

102

112

1.0%

 

Music publishing

155

169

1.0%

Education and training

 

87

88

0.2%

Governance, funding, and professional support

 

155

164

0.6%

Multidomain*

 

200

199

-0.1%

Other products and services

 

178

189

0.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

Overall, combining the projected growth in revenues with the estimates for labour productivity suggest that employment in the sector will advance by just under 8 per cent (7.7%) by 2026. (See Table 8.2.4.) This growth is projected to be slightly behind that of the economy overall (9.7%) during the period. The strongest growth at the domain level is projected within the heritage and libraries, live performance, audio-visual and interactive media, and sound recording domains.

Table 8.2.4: Projected Potential Employment of the Cultural Sector 
(employment, number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2017

2026

2017-2026 Growth

Cultural sector, all products and services

 

715,384

770,487

7.7%

Culture products and services only

 

580,524

624,978

7.7%

Heritage and libraries

Total

15,682

18,402

17.3%

 

Archives

151

180

19.0%

 

Libraries

522

674

29.0%

 

Cultural heritage

9,824

11,242

14.4%

 

Natural heritage

5,186

6,307

21.6%

Live performance

Total

59,897

68,398

14.2%

 

Performing arts

56,072

64,173

14.4%

 

Festivals and celebrations

3,825

4,225

10.5%

Visual and applied arts

Total

116,834

123,759

5.9%

 

Original visual art

5,870

6,438

9.7%

 

Art reproductions

963

1,007

4.6%

 

Photography

9,824

9,039

-8.0%

 

Crafts

4,495

4,586

2.0%

 

Advertising

28,309

30,926

9.2%

 

Architecture

14,379

14,625

1.7%

 

Design

52,993

57,136

7.8%

Written and published works

Total

102,062

98,765

-3.2%

 

Books

8,423

8,041

-4.5%

 

Periodicals

10,539

9,649

-8.4%

 

Newspapers

21,142

16,817

-20.5%

 

Other published works

1,096

1,134

3.5%

 

Collected Information

2,156

2,127

-1.3%

 

Multi-subdomain

58,706

60,997

3.9%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

127,982

146,645

14.6%

 

Film and video

66,284

84,135

26.9%

 

Broadcasting

36,233

31,821

-12.2%

 

Interactive media

25,464

30,689

20.5%

Sound recording

Total

8,285

9,061

9.4%

 

Sound recording

1,885

1,881

-0.2%

 

Music publishing

6,400

7,180

12.2%

Education and training

 

54,710

60,338

10.3%

Governance, funding, and professional support

 

89,139

92,634

3.9%

Multidomain*

 

5,933

6,975

17.6%

Other products and services

 

134,860

145,509

7.9%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

8.3 Examining Labour Supply and Demand Dynamics in the Cultural Sector

To understand if and how labour dynamics for the cultural sector may change going forward and potentially limit the growth of the sector, it is important to first understand the current situation. In many respects, the cultural sector is unique, particularly because of the prevalence of self-employment.

There are a few distinct perspectives that could be used to quantitatively convey the current and projected labour market situation for the sector. One perspective would be to focus on the industry classifications that are deemed to be part of the cultural sector. The challenge is that forecasting the degree to which labour challenges may affect future performance (and may already affect the performance) is complicated due to the fact that many of the jobs within the sector are not cultural occupations. Hence, for non-cultural occupations, the primary drivers of both demand and supply for those positions are likely to be outside of the cultural sector. Unfortunately, at the present time, the level and composition of these jobs is unknown. Hence, one of the recommendations going forward is to consider the development of a human resource module for the Culture Satellite Account.

Another perspective would be to examine the labour market situation focusing solely on those occupations that are identified as cultural under the National Occupation Classification (NOC). The challenge here too is that forecasting the demand for these occupations requires an understanding of the degree to which workers in these jobs work outside the cultural sector. Unfortunately, the degree to which workers in cultural occupations work outside (or even inside) the cultural sector is unknown. A further benefit of a human resource module for the Culture Satellite Account would be to fill in some of these gaps in understanding.

A hybrid approach (used in this report) associates the specific cultural occupational projections with the cultural domain and subdomain projections that are deemed to be most relevant. To do this, however, requires the use of the most recent occupational framework assigned to the cultural sector. At the present time, this continues to be Statistics Canada’s Classification Guide for the Canadian Framework for Culture Statistics (2011).

Ultimately, the resulting labour supply and demand relationships could then be assumed to reflect the reality within the cultural sector. It should be noted that the levels of both labour supply and labour demand differ from the employment levels revealed in the Culture Satellite Account because the primary lens for comparison is on cultural occupations rather than cultural industries.

The following table shows the employment in the cultural occupations based on Statistics Canada’s 2016 Census. (See Table 8.3.1.) Overall, just under 800,000 individuals were reported to have worked in a cultural occupation during the reference year (2015).

Table 8.3.1: Cultural Occupations 
(employment, number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2015

Cultural occupations, total

 

 798,305

Heritage and libraries

Total

 84,480

 

Archivists

 2,060

 

Records management and filing clerks

 7,780

 

Librarians

 9,835

 

Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks

 4,850

 

Library clerks

 19,075

 

Conservators and curators

 2,175

 

Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries

 9,070

 

Conservation and fishery officers

 5,440

 

Biological technologists and technicians

 11,160

 

Forestry technologists and technicians

 7,780

 

Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers

 5,255

Live performance

Total

 133,000

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations

 29,075

 

Musicians and singers

 40,295

 

Dancers

 11,700

 

Actors and comedians

 15,995

 

Other performers

 8,395

 

Conference and event planners

 27,540

Visual and applied arts

Total

 355,160

 

Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists

 24,785

 

Photographers

 21,030

 

Photographic and film processors

 2,725

 

Artisans and craftspersons

 17,285

 

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations

 23,570

 

Architects

 18,080

 

Landscape architects

 2,215

 

Urban and land use planners

 13,205

 

Architecture and science managers

 9,295

 

Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists

 21,290

 

Architectural technologists and technicians

 11,325

 

Drafting technologists and technicians

 29,755

 

Web designers and developers

 29,020

 

Industrial designers

 9,695

 

Graphic designers and illustrators

 66,875

 

Interior designers

 28,025

 

Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers

 16,175

 

Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products

 1,120

 

Graphic arts technicians

 9,690

Written and published works

Total

 148,820

 

Authors and writers

 31,110

 

Editors

 19,170

 

Journalists

 13,045

 

Translators, terminologists, and interpreters

 19,950

 

Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

 1,805

 

Supervisors, printing, and related occupations

 3,110

 

Printing press operators

 17,825

 

Printing machine operators

 7,920

 

Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations

 2,900

 

Binding and finishing machine operators

 5,375

 

Correspondence, publication and related clerks

 26,610

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

 22,080

 

Film and video camera operators

 5,755

 

Announcers and other broadcasters

 6,500

 

Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified

 655

 

Broadcast technicians

 2,245

 

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

 6,925

Sound recording

Total

 4,550

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers

 4,550

Multidomain*

Total

 50,215

 

Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts

 8,185

 

Audio and video recording technicians

 14,315

 

Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 15,875

 

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 11,840

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

In the same year (2015), based on data from Statistics Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, it was reported that just over 12,300 (12,308) positions for cultural occupations were unfilled. (See Table 8.3.2.) This reported level of vacancies represents 1.5 per cent of the overall employment in cultural occupations that year. Relative to the overall economy in that year (2.9 per cent), cultural occupations exhibited a lower likelihood of being unfilled. In large part, this is due to the fact that a very high percentage of the occupations are filled by self-employed individuals. 

Table 8.3.2: Vacancies in Cultural Occupations, 2015 
(vacancies, number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2015 vacancies

Vacancy rate (%)

Cultural occupations, Total

 

 12,308

1.5%

Heritage and libraries

Total

 1,198

1.4%

 

Archivists

 12

0.6%

 

Records management and filing clerks

 117

1.5%

 

Librarians

 200

2.0%

 

Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks

 22

0.4%

 

Library clerks

 240

1.3%

 

Conservators and curators

 -

0.0%

 

Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries

 115

1.3%

 

Conservation and fishery officers

 32

0.6%

 

Biological technologists and technicians

 210

1.9%

 

Forestry technologists and technicians

 171

2.2%

 

Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers

 79

1.5%

Live performance

Total

 864

0.6%

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations

 259

0.9%

 

Musicians and singers

 -

0.0%

 

Dancers

 37

0.3%

 

Actors and comedians

 -

0.0%

 

Other performers

 46

0.5%

 

Conference and event planners

 522

1.9%

Visual and applied arts

Total

 7,929

2.2%

 

Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists

 -

0.0%

 

Photographers

 -

0.0%

 

Photographic and film processors

 -

0.0%

 

Artisans and craftspersons

 -

0.0%

 

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations

 1,234

5.2%

 

Architects

 210

1.2%

 

Landscape architects

 -

0.0%

 

Urban and land use planners

 242

1.8%

 

Architecture and science managers

 280

3.0%

 

Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists

 1,863

8.8%

 

Architectural technologists and technicians

 218

1.9%

 

Drafting technologists and technicians

 717

2.4%

 

Web designers and developers

 955

3.3%

 

Industrial designers

 280

2.9%

 

Graphic designers and illustrators

 1,431

2.1%

 

Interior designers

 176

0.6%

 

Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers

 118

0.7%

 

Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products

 -

0.0%

 

Graphic arts technicians

 205

2.1%

Written and published works

Total

 1,499

1.0%

 

Authors and writers

 386

1.2%

 

Editors

 289

1.5%

 

Journalists

 178

1.4%

 

Translators, terminologists, and interpreters

 56

0.3%

 

Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

 -

0.0%

 

Supervisors, printing, and related occupations

 -

0.0%

 

Printing press operators

 221

1.2%

 

Printing machine operators

 -

0.0%

 

Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations

 -

0.0%

 

Binding and finishing machine operators

 88

1.6%

 

Correspondence, publication and related clerks

 281

1.1%

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

 392

1.8%

 

Film and video camera operators

 22

0.4%

 

Announcers and other broadcasters

 95

1.5%

 

Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified

 1

0.2%

 

Broadcast technicians

 39

1.8%

 

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

 235

3.4%

Sound recording

Total

 -

0.0%

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers

 -

0.0%

Multidomain*

Total

 425

0.8%

 

Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts

 194

2.4%

 

Audio and video recording technicians

 50

0.4%

 

Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 124

0.8%

 

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 58

0.5%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2015).

While vacancies dipped in 2016, according to data from Statistics Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, vacancies then ramped up to reach nearly 14,600 (14,559) by 2018. (See Table 8.3.3.)

Table 8.3.3: Vacancies in Cultural Occupations, 2016–2018 
(vacancy, number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2016 Vacancies

2017 Vacancies

2018 Vacancies

Cultural occupations, total

 

 12,049

 13,502

 14,559

Heritage and libraries

Total

 1,193

 1,630

 1,520

 

Archivists

 9

 -

 9

 

Records management and filing clerks

 157

 137

 172

 

Librarians

 123

 87

 113

 

Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks

 16

 -

 -

 

Library clerks

 240

 368

 271

 

Conservators and curators

 18

 -

 48

 

Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries

 157

 311

 220

 

Conservation and fishery officers

 9

 77

 -

 

Biological technologists and technicians

 271

 470

 511

 

Forestry technologists and technicians

 112

 127

 107

 

Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers

 79

 53

 69

Live performance

Total

 788

 1,308

 1,409

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations

 232

 279

 306

 

Musicians and singers

 -

 85

 25

 

Dancers

 -

 83

 95

 

Actors and comedians

 -

 -

 99

 

Other performers

 29

 80

 120

 

Conference and event planners

 527

 780

 764

Visual and applied arts

Total

 7,891

 7,856

 8,705

 

Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists

 -

 -

 94

 

Photographers

 23

 12

 18

 

Photographic and film processors

 66

 -

 71

 

Artisans and craftspersons

 -

 -

 -

 

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations

 1,586

 1,072

 1,012

 

Architects

 183

 383

 487

 

Landscape architects

 30

 35

 25

 

Urban and land use planners

 309

 276

 247

 

Architecture and science managers

 378

 233

 275

 

Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists

 1,395

 895

 1,032

 

Architectural technologists and technicians

 286

 291

 450

 

Drafting technologists and technicians

 660

 886

 993

 

Web designers and developers

 857

 1,009

 1,082

 

Industrial designers

 155

 269

 326

 

Graphic designers and illustrators

 1,160

 1,284

 1,405

 

Interior designers

 366

 366

 499

 

Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers

 166

 190

 215

 

Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products

 -

 11

 -

 

Graphic arts technicians

 268

 644

 473

Written and published works

Total

 1,324

 1,816

 1,771

 

Authors and writers

 344

 504

 469

 

Editors

 175

 228

 175

 

Journalists

 108

 243

 221

 

Translators, terminologists, and interpreters

 148

 144

 116

 

Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

 26

 15

 15

 

Supervisors, printing, and related occupations

 14

 9

 23

 

Printing press operators

 166

 211

 166

 

Printing machine operators

 -

 107

 138

 

Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations

 -

 -

 41

 

Binding and finishing machine operators

 134

 134

 181

 

Correspondence, publication and related clerks

 209

 220

 225

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

 408

 454

 587

 

Film and video camera operators

 -

 -

 22

 

Announcers and other broadcasters

 99

 107

 162

 

Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified

 1

 1

 1

 

Broadcast technicians

 18

 -

 7

 

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

 290

 346

 394

Sound recording

Total

 -

 -

 -

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers

 -

 -

 -

Multidomain*

Total

 444

 438

 567

 

Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts

 226

 177

 194

 

Audio and video recording technicians

 35

 18

 79

 

Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 117

 184

 202

 

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 67

 58

 93

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

It should be noted that in any one year, the level of overall demand for cultural occupations may exceed that which is actually met by the economy. The degree to which labour demand may exceed labour supply is assumed to be equal to the number of positions that remain unfilled. Conservatively, this could be reflected by the level of reported vacancies in the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. It could be argued that this is likely to be conservative, given that not all vacancies will show up using this data source. Statistic Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey reflects only vacancies that have been unfilled for at least one month. In addition, there may be reasons why businesses or individuals do not recruit positions using a formal process.

As these shortages are already creeping up in the cultural sector (and in the overall economy), it will be important to address labour challenges in the sector. Without success in addressing such issues going forward, the cultural sector could face growing difficulties in attracting and retaining employees and individuals—factors that could limit the growth potential of the sector.

Aside from affecting performance in any one year, labour shortages can also affect future investment decisions. Our methodology to estimate the degree to which job vacancies reduce potential investment draws upon insights from the Business Development Bank of Canada’s (BDC)’s Investment Intentions Survey (conducted annually since 2015)—in particular, responses to questions on that survey that probe for factors limiting the investment intentions of small businesses in Canada. To establish a relationship, we linked the survey results (specifically, the proportion of small businesses indicating a reduction in investment due to a shortage of qualified employees each year) with the job vacancy rates in each year.

Using 2015 as a reference year—when the shortage represented just the level of vacancies—we can estimate the level of labour demand that exists in any year by adding together the labour supply (observed performance) plus the shortages (as reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey) plus any potential “carry-over” effects from previous years’ vacancies. This process can be repeated up to 2018 (the last full year of vacancy data, as reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey). (See Table 8.3.4.) In this table, the overall estimated labour shortage (14,704) is higher than the reported Job Vacancy and Wage Survey vacancies (14,559) for that year (as shown in Table 8.3.3).

Table 8.3.4: Labour Demand, Supply, and Shortage in Cultural Occupations, 2018 
(number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2018 Labour Demand

2018 Labour Supply

2018 Shortage

Cultural Occupations, Total

 

 866,159

 851,456

 14,704

Heritage and libraries

Total

 97,136

 95,593

 1,544

 

Archivists

 2,305

 2,296

 9

 

Records management and filing clerks

 8,955

 8,781

 174

 

Librarians

 11,225

 11,111

 114

 

Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks

 5,479

 5,479

 -

 

Library clerks

 21,801

 21,528

 273

 

Conservators and curators

 2,430

 2,382

 48

 

Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries

 10,158

 9,932

 226

 

Conservation and fishery officers

 6,322

 6,321

 2

 

Biological technologists and technicians

 13,485

 12,967

 519

 

Forestry technologists and technicians

 9,149

 9,039

 109

 

Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers

 5,827

 5,758

 70

Live performance

Total

 152,650

 151,234

 1,416

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations

 33,742

 33,435

 307

 

Musicians and singers

 46,363

 46,338

 25

 

Dancers

 13,550

 13,455

 96

 

Actors and comedians

 18,492

 18,394

 99

 

Other performers

 9,775

 9,654

 121

 

Conference and event planners

 30,728

 29,960

 768

Visual and applied arts

Total

 389,685

 380,901

 8,784

 

Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists

 28,131

 28,037

 94

 

Photographers

 22,062

 22,045

 18

 

Photographic and film processors

 2,958

 2,887

 71

 

Artisans and craftspersons

 18,426

 18,426

 -

 

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations

 25,623

 24,600

 1,022

 

Architects

 19,749

 19,259

 490

 

Landscape architects

 2,376

 2,350

 27

 

Urban and land use planners

 14,258

 14,009

 250

 

Architecture and science managers

 10,139

 9,861

 278

 

Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists

 23,626

 22,586

 1,040

 

Architectural technologists and technicians

 12,468

 12,014

 454

 

Drafting technologists and technicians

 32,564

 31,566

 998

 

Web designers and developers

 32,465

 31,377

 1,088

 

Industrial designers

 10,813

 10,482

 330

 

Graphic designers and illustrators

 73,714

 72,307

 1,407

 

Interior designers

 30,801

 30,301

 500

 

Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers

 17,705

 17,489

 216

 

Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products

 1,212

 1,211

 1

 

Graphic arts technicians

 10,595

 10,097

 498

Written and published works

Total

 142,224

 140,435

 1,789

 

Authors and writers

 31,382

 30,911

 471

 

Editors

 19,254

 19,077

 177

 

Journalists

 12,957

 12,733

 224

 

Translators, terminologists, and interpreters

 20,458

 20,341

 117

 

Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

 1,762

 1,745

 16

 

Supervisors, printing, and related occupations

 3,193

 3,170

 23

 

Printing press operators

 15,590

 15,423

 168

 

Printing machine operators

 6,993

 6,853

 140

 

Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations

 2,550

 2,509

 41

 

Binding and finishing machine operators

 4,836

 4,651

 186

 

Correspondence, publication and related clerks

 23,249

 23,023

 226

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

 25,392

 24,793

 599

 

Film and video camera operators

 6,598

 6,576

 22

 

Announcers and other broadcasters

 7,340

 7,176

 164

 

Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified

 742

 741

 1

 

Broadcast technicians

 2,311

 2,304

 7

 

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

 8,401

 7,996

 405

Sound recording

Total

 4,927

 4,927

 -

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers

 4,927

 4,927

 -

Multidomain*

Total

 54,145

 53,573

 572

 

Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts

 8,929

 8,732

 197

 

Audio and video recording technicians

 15,351

 15,272

 79

 

Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 17,140

 16,937

 203

 

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 12,725

 12,632

 94

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016-2018).

Going forward, labour shortages are projected to continue to ramp up for many occupations, as labour demand is forecast to increase at a faster pace than supply. (See Table 8.3.5.) By 2026, the degree to which labour demand could exceed labour supply is projected to exceed 20,050 jobs. This does not suggest that the level of vacancies reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey for that year would equal this figure. Rather, this figure reflects the cumulative effect of previous labour shortages that result in curtailed expansion and investment decisions together with the outright labour shortages for that year.

Table 8.3.5: Labour Demand, Supply, and Shortage in Cultural Occupations, 2026 
(number of jobs)

Domains

Subdomains

2026 Labour Demand

2026 Labour Supply

2026 Shortage

Cultural Occupations, Total

 

 933,225

 912,650

 20,575

Heritage and libraries

Total

 120,172

 114,513

 5,659

 

Archivists

 2,791

 2,657

 134

 

Records management and filing clerks

 11,060

 10,737

 323

 

Librarians

 14,697

 13,917

 780

 

Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks

 6,972

 6,863

 109

 

Library clerks

 26,914

 26,324

 590

 

Conservators and curators

 2,838

 2,681

 157

 

Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries

 11,767

 11,180

 586

 

Conservation and fishery officers

 7,829

 7,511

 318

 

Biological technologists and technicians

 16,654

 15,409

 1,246

 

Forestry technologists and technicians

 11,856

 10,742

 1,114

 

Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers

 6,795

 6,492

 304

Live performance

Total

 171,232

 169,086

 2,145

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations

 38,581

 37,610

 971

 

Musicians and singers

 52,149

 52,124

 25

 

Dancers

 15,230

 15,135

 95

 

Actors and comedians

 20,789

 20,691

 99

 

Other performers

 10,980

 10,859

 120

 

Conference and event planners

 33,503

 32,667

 836

Visual and applied arts

Total

 411,959

 402,760

 9,199

 

Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists

 30,445

 30,350

 94

 

Photographers

 22,630

 22,612

 18

 

Photographic and film processors

 2,747

 2,676

 71

 

Artisans and craftspersons

 19,143

 19,080

 63

 

Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations

 27,559

 26,547

 1,012

 

Architects

 20,663

 20,175

 487

 

Landscape architects

 2,474

 2,449

 25

 

Urban and land use planners

 14,849

 14,602

 247

 

Architecture and science managers

 10,553

 10,278

 275

 

Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists

 24,624

 23,542

 1,083

 

Architectural technologists and technicians

 12,973

 12,523

 450

 

Drafting technologists and technicians

 33,895

 32,902

 993

 

Web designers and developers

 34,566

 33,484

 1,082

 

Industrial designers

 11,606

 11,186

 420

 

Graphic designers and illustrators

 78,567

 77,162

 1,405

 

Interior designers

 32,835

 32,336

 499

 

Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers

 19,150

 18,663

 487

 

Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products

 1,306

 1,292

 14

 

Graphic arts technicians

 11,375

 10,901

 473

Written and published works

Total

 132,666

 130,895

 1,771

 

Authors and writers

 31,210

 30,741

 469

 

Editors

 19,121

 18,945

 175

 

Journalists

 12,497

 12,275

 221

 

Translators, terminologists, and interpreters

 21,098

 20,982

 116

 

Desktop publishing operators and related occupations

 1,678

 1,662

 15

 

Supervisors, printing, and related occupations

 3,291

 3,268

 23

 

Printing press operators

 12,814

 12,648

 166

 

Printing machine operators

 5,758

 5,620

 138

 

Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations

 2,099

 2,058

 41

 

Binding and finishing machine operators

 3,995

 3,814

 181

 

Correspondence, publication and related clerks

 19,106

 18,881

 225

Audio-visual and interactive media

Total

 29,166

 28,294

 871

 

Film and video camera operators

 7,939

 7,843

 96

 

Announcers and other broadcasters

 8,172

 7,976

 196

 

Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified

 884

 866

 18

 

Broadcast technicians

 2,190

 2,182

 7

 

Computer programmers and interactive media developers

 9,982

 9,428

 554

Sound recording

Total

 5,328

 5,328

 -

 

Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers

 5,328

 5,328

 -

Multidomain*

Total

 62,703

 61,772

 930

 

Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts

 10,445

 10,069

 376

 

Audio and video recording technicians

 17,742

 17,610

 132

 

Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 19,803

 19,529

 274

 

Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts

 14,713

 14,565

 148

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

8.4 Impact of Labour Shortages

Based on the share of total employment in each domain that was unfilled, the level of output (revenues) lost as result of labour shortages can be calculated. (See Table 8.4.1.) The figures in Table 8.4.1 exclude the impact of shortages in cultural occupations on the functioning of the transversal domains (including education and training, governance, funding, and professional support) and the cultural sector’s production of non-cultural goods and services. Overall, it is estimated that labour shortages have already resulted in reducing the potential output in the sector by nearly $975,000 in 2015 and over $1.2 million in 2018 (2012 dollars).

Table 8.4.1: Recent Impact of Shortages on Cultural Sector (Excluding Transversal and Other Products) 
(revenues, 2012 $ 000s)

Domains

 

2015

2016

2017

2018

Cultural sector

 

 974.8

 962.5

 1,084.0

 1,238.3

Heritage and libraries

 

 15.8

 15.5

 20.9

 19.4

Live performance

 

 26.1

 22.9

 37.4

 40.5

Visual and applied arts

 

 293.9

 295.9

 294.2

 329.7

Written and published works

 

 162.0

 136.4

 192.5

 190.8

Audio-visual and interactive media

 

 467.0

 481.5

 528.9

 644.8

Sound recording

 

 -

 -

 -

 -

Multidomain*

 

 10.0

 10.2

 10.0

 13.1

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

Once again, based on the projected share of total employment in each domain that could be in shortage out to 2026, estimates can be generated to reflect the level of output (revenues) that will be lost. (See Table 8.4.2.) The figures in Table 8.4.2 also exclude the potential impact of shortages in cultural occupations on the functioning of the transversal domains (including education and training, governance, funding, and professional support) and the cultural sector’s production of non-cultural goods and services. Overall, it is estimated that labour shortages will curtail the potential output in the sector by over $1.5 million in 2026 (2012 dollars).

Table 8.4.2: Future Impact of Shortages on Cultural Sector (Excluding Transversal and Other Products) 
(revenues, 2012 $ 000s)

Domains

 

2026

Cultural Sector

 

 1,536.6

Heritage and libraries

 

 58.7

Live performance

 

 53.7

Visual and applied arts

 

 387.2

Written and published works

 

 216.8

Audio-visual and interactive media

 

 779.5

Sound recording

 

 -

Multidomain*

 

 40.7

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

8.5 Summary

Despite the various data challenges that exist in accurately projecting labour market trends for the cultural sector, this section of the report has provided a context to build from. In particular, the analysis in this section quantifies the degree to which employment in each domain is unfilled and will potentially be unfilled in the future. Conservatively, labour shortages are estimated to have reduced the cultural sector’s potential output by over $1.2 million in 2018 alone (2012 dollars). Labour shortages are projected to cost the cultural sector over $1.5 million annually in lost output (2012 dollars) by 2026.

While the topic of labour shortages in the cultural sector is rarely discussed, in large part because a very high percentage of occupations are filled by self-employed individuals, the analysis presented here shows that labour shortages do exist and, in some cases, are projected to worsen.